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to talk about that policy and talk about the current state of the economy. our other special guest will be former florida governor jeb bush. i'm going to ask him about the civil war in the republican party and how to solve it. all that and more on a special edition of "the kudlow report." we are live from washington, d.c. tonight and we begin right now. >>> good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." we are live, 7:00 p.m. eastern, 4:00 p.m. pacific time. we are in washington, d.c. top stories, continuing failure that is obama care tops the news tonight. we begin with a breaking story from our colleagues at nbc news. four stories deeply involved in the crafting of the affordable care act tell nbc news that most of the 14 million americans that have their own health insurance will have their insurance cancelled as a result of obama care. the report says the white house has known this will happen for at least three years. and that means that the repeated promises made by president obama and others about keeping your own health plan were just not true for mi
, the domestic economy is doing as well as it possibly could. that was also in the bank of wars pan's outlook today that domestic economy is doing well. but overseas economies export and so on are not pulling us as much as we were hoping for. so the outlook at become quite a bit mixed. >> yeah. i just wanted to get your view of whether you think the balance of risk with fed tapering has changed. >> it has quite a bit. we still think that the bank -- that the federal reserve will be quite a bit more expansionary that we were thinking this summer. and i feel the impact in our markets in asia, in southeast asia we have still ongoing booms on many sides, which is helping a bit. but on the other hand, the dollar is right now we've got a lot of uncertainty, quite a bit weaker than we would be hoping for. so this is, of course, an impact on the outlook in the u.s. and we need this market back, of course. and here the accepts of the federal reserve is most welcome. >> yeah. meanwhile, the bank of japan as you mentioned stuck at cpi estimates this year. still expected to hit 2% in flagz in less that t
bonds because the economy is still not strong enough to generate enough jobs without interest rates staying lower than they might otherwise be. the stock market's retreat and the dow gave up 62 points. the s&p dropped 4.9%, and the nasdaq declined .55% and can clearly be laid right at the fed's feet. that's because until the fed releases the down beat statement crafted after the monthly meeting the average is pretty much even keel and after a moment's hesitation. the sellers -- >> sell, sell, sell. >> overwhelm the market and stocks began to plummet. detailing and explaining a pattern of stock buying and selling that while totally counterintuitive has become the mod us operandi, and i want to game it with me. first, the stock market acts pretty sanguine in the days leading up to the fed meeting largely because we know the economy is too weak to stand up by itself. we know the fed has to continue to buy bonds to keep interest rates low, and they told us that. lower rates allow the companies to buy more aggressively and hopefully from the fed's point of view so they expand operations.
of the country isn't as bad as some people say it is? so what's it mean for the economy and for stocks, we're going to give you the answers in three minutes. >>> and we have the first and only video of the first bombing run of that new f-35 fighter jet. the planes are designed to replace the f-16s as the backbone of american air power. stew is out today. we're joined by kayla tausche. kayla? >> thanks, tyler. we start with a story that impacts anyone who flies. that phrase "please turn off your electronic devices" we hear every single time before takeoff, that may soon be a thing of the past. soon. not quite yet. shares of goinggo up big. they don't give you wi-fi below 10,000 feet which is what this rule changes, but the idea is maybe they will. phil lebeau is in chicago reporting on the faa's new policy. a long time coming, phil, but fun to see that it finally happened. >> you know, kayla, you fly a lot like i do. i think we're both tired of the stare that we get from the flight attendant when we don't turn off our kindle or whatever we might have on at the time. that's going to be chang
quarter gdp marks the first time the economy has grown for a while. >>> all right. the fed wraps up its two-day meeting this afternoon. central banks announced last month that it wouldn't start tapering purchases just yet. the move comes amid concerns about the budget fight in washington. senator paul wants to hold up janet yellen's nomination. he also wants a bill on transparency. very good morning to you. we're seeing ten-year treasury fall down to around this 2.5% level where we stand at the moment. expectations now for tapering starting in march next year. will yields stay where they were? is there any chance of them going low? >> i think if it becomes apparent tapering won't commence until march, treasury yields could fall a bit further, maybe as low as 2.25%. but with that threat of tapering in the background, it's unlikely they'll fall back to the previous lows we saw in the in the middle of the la year. >> what is the chance that there may be some minutes out saying, look, there is still an argument for a december move? is there any price of that in the market? if there was, wha
found in earlier ones in threats to the economy and many saw this as a sign the fed thinks the economy is strengthening and might end qe sooner rather than later. larry, back to you. >> mary, why do you know more about this than i do? so facebook reports pretty good earnings and the stock jumps up big, but then the stock goes back down. is that just thin trading after hours or what? >> i think some people maybe were disappointed that the earnings weren't stronger than expected at that point. as you said, they both beat on the revenue as well as the earnings side, but there seemed to be some disappointment after hours and people were looking back and saying it wasn't the blockbuster report they were expecting. >> mary thompson, thanks very, very much. now let's talk to andrew bush, author and publisher of the bush update. peter schiff joins us, the ceo of euro pacific capital. you know, i understand that they moved some things from the -- from the statement today, but i just have a totally -- i'm going to you, peter. i read "the new york times" sunday with this big story about the fed s
to the spanish economy. the result of the policy complemented by the spanish prime minister who implemented some structural reforms, including some deep reforms of the labor market. these made spain more competitive and helped to sell its production outside the country. this is the most important and most positive signal for the spanish economy. on the other hand, the internal demand remains weak and ma may be because of the extremely high -- in spain. consumer sentiment has been falling for three years. it seems to be let me thinked to some technical ek because last year in september there was a vat and that's the reason why the comparison basis was favorable. but the internal demand remains very weak. it will remain very weak according to a private economist. the imf believes the unemployment rate will remain about 25% in the next four years in spain. pel be filling spain with various cargo areas. stay with us. >> stephane, thank you so much for that. let's continue our check of the markets across europe. the dax in germany is up by 0.3%. still above that 9,000 level. it is seeing record high
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.1%. >> yes. i don't think the euro's strength is every about european economy. it's more about the european similarity with japan. it's five times as big as chinas or japan's. . that's the driver. interest rates and market rates, yes, it's traded 120, 140 for a lot of the last few years. we're at the top end of that rate. >> is there a prospect that we've got -- i've seen this coming up, this q eternity. are we in the land of q eternity? >> it's a fear for a lot of people in the sense that the first attempt at unwinding any qe at all -- >> backed off. >> this is kind of, i don't know, the justification for never giving up, whether it's cigarettes, coffee, or alcohol or whatever it is people don't give up. i'm addicted to this and i'm going to have to keep on going. i think that would be a huge mistake. i think they should have tapered in september. maybe they knew what was going to happen to the politics. they should taper as soon as it's safe, but the only reason for q eternity is if the u.s. economy and the world economy is doomed to a horrible future. i refuse to give into that thought.
for more stimulus from the fed, a read on the economy will come tomorrow. the s&p 500 got in the game, hitting a new high today, it's been doing that nearly every day, it seems. finally the nasdaq nearing a 13-year high, larry the dow transports and russell 2,000 hits new high, we will do that to the market. back to you. >> there may be more of that easy money on the way, kayla, thanks, so much. now, obama care is taking center stage on capitol hill today the administrator of medicare and medicaid services testified before the house committee on ways an means. for that, we turn to political reporter and cnbc robert costa of the national review. he joins us live from washington. as always, goef, robert. robert, give me a read, all right, i have spoken to chairman fred upton who will be on in a moment. in your political read, what do they want out of sebelius, will they all call for her to be fired? are they going to jump on her? how is this going to work? >> the republicans will grill the secretary on the rollingout of the central portal for obama care. what they're real
in the company's consumer line business. the ceo was on the closing bell yesterday talking about the economy and the broader business environment. >> it was lacking is enough confidence to take risk toes create jobs. i think that's the big issue here. but people are maximizing what they have. they're not doing a lot of new things. so for aig, we continue to grow. we continue to grow across the board, both in the united states and around the world. but it's a matter of our clients are a little bit more cautious. but i don't know that this quarter or next quarter that you'll see any effect on our business materially. >> and stores products retailer container store, they raised $225 million. the ipo was priced at $18 a share, the top end of its increased price range. stairs are set to start trading on the new york stock exchange today under the symbol tcs. >>> microsoft co-founder paul allen's fund is suggesting microsoft spin off its consumer business. this is big news. the man who manages allen's fortune is now suggesting that microsoft search and xbox business res deextracting from the softw
leveraged banks in the sort of western economy. so the u.s. delevered first and the uk, lloyd's did it very well. but the european banks still have quite some way to go. >> do we think this beater is going to continue for this sector? >> i personally don't see how it can ever end. i think it's the high volatility that we're seeing. >> the high relationship it has, the stocks themselves and the banking taper and indeed, the underlying market. >> i think we're going to see it for a while, until they become utility like which is where they're ultimately going to be going. >> how do you see the bank? >> i think it's created a tremendous run for equity investors. i think it's a great play on gdp and the global macro economy. there is still some way to go. and i think the regulatory remains ambiguous. >> i'm going to talk to you about earnings as a capitalist for the broad performance. >> yeah. the problem with the banking sector is that there's still a large part of the banking sector which don't have any visibility in earnings. and what's really happened, i think, in the last 15, 18 months, pos
. but the economy is perhaps not strong enough to sustain those gains. if there is a little bit of a doubt on policy that could cause us a little bit of a worry. >> to me, my thing is being realistic about expectations. when you have the s&p 500 at 1750, it's not that cheap anymore. over the next five years i think you can make in u.s. dollar terms 5 to 6% a year out of the u.s. equity market. that's really about it. if interest rates are back up, fair value, you made 6% per year in equities, i think you end at fair market value. that's a far cry of what we've been able to see over the past few years. it's getting to be more expensive. enough money will ruin any asset class. >> we'll be back to the conversation in a minute. steve? >> let's run through a couple more of these stories. the story behind me, roundabout 7 out of 10 stocks are up. each row represents 10% of the market. 70% of the stocks are up on the year as we speak. let's take a look at the stockholm based omx which is trading up .1 at 1292. let's look at assa abbloy. they have seen a fourth quarter target, topped third quarter earnings.
trying to figure out what the market is saying. the federal reserve said the economy is growing moderately. job growth picked up a little built. housing stumbled over the last period since their last meeting. net-net, no change. >> no change. we weren't expecting a change but it's about the data. once again the fed reiterates it's focused on the data. it has been a big day for the markets because going into the fed meeting, not much and all of a sudden we sell off after the meeting. >> both stocks and bonds. >> with rates moving higher. elbattled new health care law, president due to give a speech defending the health care law, you'll see it live in about an hour, and we'll have reaction from two people who had their insurance can delled due to the law. he can win them back? >> starbucks ceo howard schultz with be with us. he's been a big supporter of obama care. we'll get his take on the rollout problems. and then reports on their earnings in about an hour. howard will break down those numbers for us. let's not forget about facebook either. the social media giant will be report
point. because the shutdown certainly slowed the economy. it's going to skew the data. it's going to be great opaqueness to the data over the next month or so. i think the important thing to remember is although there was damage done to the economy, and we could argue how much or how little, there was damage done to the economy. the important point is it's not irreparable. as washington gets out of the way, we will see the private sector begin to work its way back. we'll see some of those trends we saw establish themselves in terms of improving economy before the shutdown, we think those trends are going to come back again. >> will washington ever get out of the way? i hope so. they're certainly not off the calendar yet. we'll see if we go through the same debacle again in february. >> i think you agree with that, rick santelli. some of the economic data we're getting -- you want them out of the way, don't you? >> listen. it all depends on what your definition of out of the way is. i would like to address mr. bernstein's comment. i'm not seeing chicago is going to reflect the enti
a cycle to our economy. we have a cycle to the market. fifth years can give you some nasty things. the fifth year of the 1982 market brought you the crash. we got five years out of the market through '95 to '99, and then we stepped off the curb and we ended in the 2000 dotcom bubble bursting. >> from a practical standpoint, what does that mean? when you say be cautious, what are you saying? are you saying selling into the rally? raising cash? what? >> i'm saying you have to be defensive in your choices here. of your risk money, i think you have to have a very significant amount of it in defensive position. so, what i might do is be looking at value stocks as opposed to growth stocks. i might be looking at midcaple and large cap value stocks. i might be looking at staples, the consumer stams have been leading, but only for about a month. those are traditionally a defensive place to be. >> david, you think we're in a phase where a lot of what's going on is performance-chasing. we've already had great performance in the he cequity markets for the last few years. now people want to ge
. the st. louis fed president james bullard will be speaking about the economy and monetary policy at 11:00 a.m. and chevron reports earnings before the opening bell. we'll hear from cboe holdings and the washington post. berkshire hathaway reports after the close. now, as i engz mentioned, chinese factories continue to pick up their pace in october. both the official and the private sether pmis rose to solid export orders. but there's concern that the recoveries are only being stopped by the large companies as the subindex lagged. joining us is louis core, chief chinese economist at rbs. louis, good to see you. thanks for joining us. are we quite happy about the sustainability and the strength of the chinese economy despite the concerns about the housing market and nonperforming loans of chinese banks? >> well, you know, i think china still is facing many issues, both with regard to the short-term outlook, also all these structural issues. but i think if you look at growth and where are we going in the common quarters, i think that growth will, overall, be enough efficiently above the g
's critical, obviously, to the fed and to the economy. adp number out this morning, not so great. let's check in with you at the nyse. >> you're absolutely right, and we will get to that but we want to start, ty, with the fireworks on capitol hill as kathleen sebelius goes before the house energy and commerce committee. bertha coombs is on the case on capitol hill. over to you, bertha. >> sue, the hearing lasting more than three and a half hours and members of congress usually a little more def ren shall to a cab meth member but they did hit secretary kathleen sebelius hard on a number of issues. she started out by apologizing and taking responsibility for the website nurse and it's improving every day. clearly there have not been enough but she said none of the contractors who said they raised red flags said the problems warranted delaying the october 1st rollout. when pressed by congresswoman marcia blackburn about some of those critical late decisions that may have contributed to the failures and who made them in her staff sebelius said ultimately the buck stopped with her. >> i'm not poin
difficult for the market. so i think we have to be careful in here. the economy is moving along, but it's kind of like a jalopy. swerving all over the road. moving slowly, still moving forward. >> one of the big stories of the day, rick santelli, was the backup in yield. tell us what happened in the market today. >> it really was more yesterday than today. even though we've held it. if you look at a two day chart it really says it all. yesterday after the statement, we dropped down to a 247 yield. a very significant technical level. 38% retracement of the move in rates which monitored 136 basis points from may to september. having that hold and basically settling up at 2.55, i think is significant. if you look at the month of october from the vantage point of treasuries, 10-year note yields the last day in september were 2.61. we've only shaved off basically a handful of basis points. the big story is, you need to factor this in, is that europe went from the disaster to stabilization. but do we get overly optimistic? 12.2 unemployment in the ing aggregate eurozone. maybe a week from tod
concerns the strong ism, good news for the economy, concerns the fed might start tapering as early as december. take a look at interest rate. the ten-year yield has been moving up the last several days. moving up again today as you saw, moved up around 1:00 as we heard news of the shooting. today the market much more defensive tone. you have utilities and health care stocks among the leaders. guys, back to you. >> thank you, bob. we'll be checking back. as we proceed on "closing bell" today. >> certainly an interesting day. we'll be following the developments out of l.a.x. the markets are about to close in about half an hour. with that much time to go, about 15,606 on the dow. the s&p up by just four points. >> much more on the shooting at l.a.x. as we continue our coverage for this friday. ♪ ♪ hey [ male announcer ] when we built the cadillac ats from the ground up, to be the world's best sports sedan... ♪ ...people noticed. ♪ something like a phenomenon, baby ♪ ♪ you're something like a phenomenon ♪ [ male announcer ] the cadillac ats, 2013 north american car of the
. if the economy can get along, you can add 2.6 and get a home mortgage at 4.6 they're not about to give away anything on the bond market. i think that's why rates have stayed, other than when politicians messed things around in the middle of october, we're sitting at 2.6 and i think so the bond market says, we're not going any lower than this. >> we saw a pretty good spike last week. people were worried last week but there's always a cap. >> i think the cap is if this economy can adjust and move homes, which we're not forming households we're off about 300,000 in terms of hos hold formation. if we can get household formation back, we'll see progress. i think rates -- the bond market is saying we're not going anywhere. you can't talk us down any more fed chair. we see the rates coming. we know they're rising. >> what do you think? >> just given where how much rates rose on the threat of taper, that i don't think janet yellen, if she is, in fact elected as fed chair, is going to go anywhere close to pulling back too quickly. she's going to error on the side of being sl
to have that argument. right? [ laughter ] i will say, one of the features of the economy is corporate profits have been doing better than the economy as a whole. we don't exactly know the reason for that. companies have been incredibly efficient. and one thing, if we look at corporate profit margins over the last, say, several quarters, companies have reached a peak here. there's some of the bullet points. ahead of economic growth. companies producing more with less. we know that. wage and salary growth in line with gdp, a possibility, though, which we're looking into, whether growth is understated. looking at the corporate profit margins is the key. usually what happens is it looks like the alps. it goes up, and comes almost straight down. there's been an incredible feature here. if you look at this here, over the last several years, it's been very stable at a very high rate. >> maybe one of the issues is, as profit margins go up, the unfortunate part of that, perhaps, and you tell me, you know better than i, the companies are sitting on the money, they're sitting on their beautiful
and there was no reason. >> think about what the economy was doing in 1999. the u.s. was coming off a period where we had reasonably strong economic growth, the unemployment rate was probably below 5%. it's not necessarily the behavior of the market necessarily, even though there are signs of consistency, it's more the fact we've still got the unemployment rate up above 7% and there's a sense the economy is just not clicking. >> i think it's poetic, that the money section in "usa today" "is the fed inflating a stock bubble," just as we're finally getting to a tapering -- did you hear plosser today? >> saying he wants to cap the signs of the balance sheet. >> he wants a number on the balance sheet. we're back to that. >> well, look, i don't know. i know too many people who own stocks and they're actually happy that they made money. i can't begrudge them. it's been a great time. the fed wanted the wealth effect to come up. all i can say is what has congress done to help the economy. what has the president done? they can't even build a bridge these guys. >> that's why the fed's the only game in town. >> the
was targeting housing as one of its ways to restart the economy. housing is not working anymore. i understand why they needed to keep it up. i think that the confidence was really hurt by the budget talks. >> the international companies that we trade, not hurt. europe, once again, pmi over in europe, so good, talking about ireland, spain, italy turning. those were the three. >> if portugal turns, holy cow. >> ireland has 5 million people in it. italy is a little more important. remember the big market. >> speaking of the bond market, people still watching the ten-year at 2.6. >> it has been argued if it does go higher, at what point can you say the fed has lost control, in the bond market. >> there was a huge gap, between 3 and 2.5. people expect 2.99. if you watch stocks like home depot, they rallied as rates came back down. that will be my canary in the coal mine if home depot starts going down. the housing stocks have all just floundered here. >> we are going to get there, time warner cable, of course. kellogg out today cutting 7% of their global workforce. >> you know what's a shame? the
's troughing. >> any reflection on the industrial economy? >> you know kleinfeld. alcoa is up $1 since that call. 1.25. told you that trucks were a little bit hurting. eaton, sandy cutler said trucks are troughing. you knee what this makes me feel? makes me feel a little better about caterpillar. a lot of people where the gang couldn't shoot straight, i myself was kit call about it. cummings is a great company. it has a lot to do with mining trucks. mining trucks. but i'm not walking away from cummins, even if they tell me to! it's too great an american company. >> and get a chance to buy it cleaner today. >> all right. we're going to keep an eye on stocks, including what's coming up at the opening bell. ♪ [ male announcer ] staying warm and dry has never been our priority. our priority is, was and always will be serving you, the american people. so we improved priority mail flat rate to give you a more reliable way to ship. now with tracking up to eleven scans, specified delivery dates, and free insurance up to $50 all for the same low rate. [ woman ] we are the united states postal
'shers's a look at the dollar. >>> more signs for a growth in china's domestic economy. the october reading came in at 56.3. that was from september's 55.4. but it's not all smooth sailing. the subindex of new orders fell indicating possible weakness ahead. sectors such as real estate and food and drinks also showed contraction. >>> let me tell you what's coming up on today's show. the battle for blackberry comes to an end as the deadline draws closer for potential suitors looking to outbid fairfax financial. we have the latest at 11:30 cet. >>> then the greek government looks to help them achieve a better gdp in the third quarter. we speak to the ceo of the greek hospitality firm. at 10:45 cet. >>> then over to cairo. former egyptian president muhammad goes on trial. -- mohammed morsi goes on trial. >>> ross is meeting with the deputy prime minister of poland to discuss the merits of e.u. membership at 10:20 cet. >>> this is a look at the overall tone across european markets this morning. you can see mostly a sweep of green. just a couple of red bars along the bottom here, but overall we have a
last year's third quarter. on today's earnings quarter, we have dow and merck. as for the economy, we'll be getting industrial production numbers. pending home sales. dallas fed manufacturing survey. also, toyota talking about under the hood, keeping its top spot in auto sales rankings so far this year topping rivals gm and volkswagen. japanese car sales topping 7.4 million vehicles. that's up .1% from a year ago. strong sales in the u.s. offset slowdowns in thailand and china. joe, what's going on in washington? >>> in washington this week the redskins are probably dealing with what was a disappointing -- because they were ahead. they were ahead by two touchdowns right at the beginning of the second half and things went south quickly. so you only saw five minutes of the jets game. >> no, i know what happened. congratulations. >> thank you. i'm not looking for congratulations really. it's been a long time. people are talking about 25 years since the joe montana beat -- when the bengals got -- and i asked my kids to watch. they were watching when carson palmer's knee got blown out on t
's the fed or it's what the economy is going to finally do because of the fed up another 12 points. a decent session on friday. oil has been a pleasant surprise for commuters from $195. the ten year, interesting on friday got down, now it's back up -- it's been anywhere between the 2.4 and 2.6 handle recently. the dollar has been moving in the right direction for travelers. just recent, 1.35. we could go on to 1.35 which would help a little bit. then gold made its move to the mid 1300s and immediately turned back down. it's been in the trading range for i would say about six months. >> so plausser becomes a voting member next year and bullard is a voting member now. >> fisher -- >> he won't be. >> fisher will be next year. >> okay. >> you have new york, dallas, minneapolis, cleveland, philadelphia. >> i guess what i'm wondering, does the voting actually change the outcome? it sounds like the answer is no. if yellen says this is what we're doing, this is what we're doing. >> may get more contemptuous and more arguing. >> the minutes are more interesting. >> there's joeys and there's boomers.
valuations relative to the value of the overall economy. and you've got a number of folks that are kind of pulling the plug on some stocks. maybe a little early, but nonetheless, that gives a little warning sign. so, we think we're in a topping phase. we still have upside. we're still positive in the near term. but kind of two-handed situation. we've got good and bad and then in between the market's heading higher. >> santelli, what are you expecting from the fed this week? >> very little change. i don't see through the first quarter, maybe through the second quarter, many changes. markets will have a hard time getting a strong rally knowing tapering is probably not going to happen any time soon. when when everything is right with the world, interest rates have to normalize at some point and i think the fed outstayed their initial reservation at hotel subsidy. >> i think the world always does look better through a morphine haze, i'm told at least. rick, i want to ask you, i mentioned on twitter today how bank of america issued two different reports. one, they turned bullish on gold and
is the most regulated area virtually of the entire economy. in other words, you don't just get on the back of the truck and start selling insurance policies. they have to go through very rigid local, state regulations. so the president blaming insurance companies here, i think that really hurt him when he went there. >> i do think both of you are right in terms of the credibility problem. i don't think we see that yet in the data. the new kaiser poll released today, more americans want to keep or expand. or go back to the status quo we had before obama care. so the numbers actually don't add up yet. but this is a long time, right? unless they fix this in a short amount of time and people can experience it in a way that is positive, those numbers will go down. but here is another number. 97% of americans are unaffected by this disastrous roll-out. that's according to jonathan gruber, an m.i.t. economist. >> and barack obama. >> i understand. we've had gruber on here. these stories are awful. they don't really add up. >> that assumes you're not including the employer-based insurance. >> well
of the markets. >> yes, he is. >> but his whole thing about the mismarkets is it's based on economy everyone thought. >> not as -- >> here he is, all his call ves come through, but for all the wrong reasons and for something he may hate. >> he'll be kind of honest. he'll be kind of off. and he always like like he has a -- he's got the scruffy -- >> he can go did on walter weiss, too. >> yeah, without a costume. >>> ten-year fed -- >> our guest host today was wrong and he looks like walter weis. >> we always stroke him. >> we do. we love him. >>> they're 2.51%. i thought the fed said we're never tapering. other people said, you know, some earth shattering news that they might be data dependent. how many times have we said that? there's the dollar, 1.36. come on. get down below 1.30. soon. >>> and then gold has had some kind of -- once we found out about the central banks, it's done nothing by go up ever since the article about the central bankers starting to hit a shelf in gold. >>> a number of stories out in washington including a new nbc news "wall street journal" poll. hi, aman. you're goi
. fed watchers say ben bernanke and company may point to softer readings on the economy to signal that the policy will be extended into next year. >>> as for the other items on today's economic agenda, the october adp employment report is going to be released at 8:15 eastern time. it's expected to show 150,000 private jobs were added this month. the whisper number, though, is below that. we'll see what happens. coming up at 8:30 eastern time, we have the september consumer price index. it was delayed by the government shutdown, but it will be hitting the tape today at 8:30. the futures this morning, you can see right now, are indicated higher. dow futures up by about 55 points. s&p futures up by close to 6 1/2. andrew, back over to you. welcome back. >> thank you, becky. it's nice to be back. we have corporate news this morning, the big one being jpmorgan and the justice department reportedly hit a stumbling block over that 13 million settlement over the mortgage bonds we've been talking about for the past two weeks. the two sides are set to be arguing over whether mistakes to be
that the economy has not lived up to their own expectations. if they are revising down their forecast into the end of the year that will create all kinds of new questions. st there any voice within the fed that will actually say maybe i's a structural job change and maybe we at the fed have no control over whether or not companies hire? >> one of the problems and they have now is there are so many choices. there are al qaeda a number of people who think that their policies are not doing any good. i think the mainstream view inside the fed is that it's help ing but look what happened this summer when they talked about pulling away. rates rose and stock prices fell. looks like we got a slow down in the housing sector. that means the presence of it maybe does help a bit. but they are really, there was a real desire earlier this year to try to get on with pulling this back and they have got a problem on their hands now. put aside that we had all of the government shut down drama. the fed was expecting to see a pick up in growth and it's just not materializing. >> you know, john, the dow closed at all
their pedal on the metal. they're not going to stop until they feel the economy can stand on its own two feet. >> michael jones -- >> they're not going to taper. >> right. michael jones, weigh in here. how are you allocating? you agree, you want to buy stocks here? >> we believe you get the best example of how powerful the qe in terms of significant pullbacks by contrasting the last budget fiasco in 2011 with this one. we had almost a 20% plunge in the market in 2011. we had a 3%, 4% pull back this time. i think it does give you a sense as to when they're pushing the qe, it's hard to get a sustained pullback and it's perilous to fight the fed. but the market has turned from being overly concerned, this summer everyone said september, and now everyone is pushing tapering out to march, even april. i think there's a real possibility the economy sloweded because of government shutdown and rates. if we reaccelerate, tapering comes back on the table and a lot of sectors are not priced for that. >> so, you -- are you saying you want to raise cash here or short or what? >> i think the overall market,
of the economy. steve liesman has data on where economists stand on growth and the holiday shopping season. >> we're surfing the treacherous economy right here. more quantitative easing you think more growth. think again. the cnbc fed survey when "power lunch" returns. my customers can shop around-- see who does good work and compare costs. it doesn't usually work that way with health care. but with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, treatment options and estimates for how much i'll pay. that helps me, and my guys, make better decisions. i don't like guesses with my business, and definitely not with our health. innovations that work for you. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. [ male announcer ] once in a while, everything falls into perfect harmony. [ engine revs ] and you find yourself in exactly the right place at the right time. just be sure you're in the right car when it happens. the 2014 c-class sports sedan. power, performance and style in total alignment. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial ser
damage from the fed's attempt to stimulate the economy. tell people they need to sell, sell, sell. because of the bubbles. easy. but it hasn't been right. and i don't think it will be. let me tell you why. why don't we deal with the reality of the situation rather than just bubbles? let's talk about how difficult it is when the day-to-day basis to call something a bubble and then, therefore, have to sell the whole position based on the logic of bubble overvaluation. consider what happened today with two big household names. facebook and starbucks. last night the companies reported fantastic numbers. amazing ones. analysts armed to the teeth with bubble poppers wanted to work, they went right to work on the q&a. they highlighted everything that might make you feel like you have two huge bubbles on your hand. you know what? they had double bubbles. double bub -- double bubbles. thank you. facebook gived a monster quarter but seemed as though anyone could focus on a comment about how younger teens have decreased usage. and how the company doesn't expect to significantly increase ads
what, people say, holy cow, this economy is so weak. they get scared. you know what they do when they're scared? >> sell, sell, sell. >> if we get a big number, taper talk will be thick and more sellers. if you're at all nervous about friday, a strong or weak number, you'll get -- >> sell, sell, sell. >> unless the number comes in goldilocks style, not too strong, not too weak. how about individual companies? money day is independent oil day. after the close we'll hear from anna darko and pioneer natural. you've heard these companies on our show. i think all three will raise production numbers. be aware oil plummeted. if crude goes $5 lower to $90, all stocks will get hit no matter what they say. that's the psychological barrier. if oil rallies on monday, i wouldn't be a buyer of any of them going in. tuesday we have controversial names. tesla and regenron. tesla say he would cold stock. if elon announces a europe, it will be a flash. regenron there's a lot about competitive products in the pipe. i even suggested to trim gilad, my favorite. i think you stay on the sidelines for regenr
to be a given. then, the fed showed to be pressed because the economy slowed down. the next thing you now, did you see the housing stocks last week. they were on fire. a couple of notes from home depot doing very well. gasoline, let's not underestimate the power of gasoline going down. it is kind of remarkable. a lot of good things happening away from congress, the president. i always have to say both. >> the further you get away from it, probably the better things are happening. >> let's talk about merck, excluding items that are 92 cents a share. that was ahead of wall street's forecast. revenues missed as sales of merck's diabetes drug fell. they were hurt by patent ex per rig ri expirations. i look at a note and he was questioni questioning these jenuvia franchise groeth. they believe there was a $60 million wholesale or inventor work done in the quarter. the corrective demand was probably close to 762 million with the prescription trends. >> i live in summit, new jersey. we have all been trying to figure out what the heck happened with that. $9 million taxpayer, huge amount of summit's bu
&p, which is up from $1110. that is a big move in a weak economy. >> we keep talking about tapering so much. >> i'm blaming you. >>. >> i have a quick question about christmas. not you, to you, david. i'm over here. are you looking at me? >> i'm looking right at you. >> i thought you were looking behind me. this obama care stuff, if you're paying 200 and all of a sudden you're going to be paying $1,000, is it enough people to where you say i'm cutting back on christmas or would the sequester cut back on christmas or would the shutdown or does it wealth affect for the stock market and the housing situation being better, does that offset that? >> i think it will be a modest christmas at best. they probably will be successful. >> how could that affect the normal person? the normal person shopping for the family at christmas isn't thinking about whether congress has another argument, are they? >> you know, if we have a debt default, and that's going to be all in the news in disease. >> if you work for a defense company, you might be -- right. well, wa about obama? you don't think the sticker sh
years ago, it was double-digit growth. the amount of dollars was much smaller adding to the economy. now, you're growing at 7%, and the dollar value is very, very high. so i see tremendous growth and i don't see the slowdown. i really don't. when i visit various cities and companies in china. >> so how does the average investor, the retail investor at home play the markets you're suggesting? what's the best way for them to put their money to work? >> well, first of all you have to remember at least 30% of the global market capitalization is emerging markets. therefore they've got to look at 35% of tare portfolio in emerging markets. then don't forget frontier. i forget to mention africa is very exciting now. 3 to 4% in frontier markets as well because they're growing faster than emerging markets generally. >> you have a frontier markets fund but if people are not able to get into that, and you want to play in africa for the retail investor sometimes it's daunting, confusing. would you recommend are there etfes that can do that or better to buy say multinational corporations that are inve
is a sign of deflation. deflation. and weakness in the economy. i think the fourth straight month of declines in existing home sales could be behind that action we got the number earlier this morning. that plus an overall sense this economy is dead in the water. or will soon be because of a dearth of consumer confidence laid at the feet of washington which is only going to grow more rancorous not less as it seems to me politicians learned nothing from the most recent debacle. so many pols believe they're doing what's right for the country as consumers seem to be on hold and businesses stall here because of a horrendous partisan bickering that makes it much more appealing to do business -- guess where? overseas. on top of that, these consumer staples are huge beneficiaries of the decline of the dollar and raw costs, notably oil and gas. the estimates could be too low. lots of reasons for those stocks to keep rolling higher. we also saw the powerful tug of management execution on big stocks. today merck reported a number that looked on the surface like a nice beat. but when we went
how cities can better compete in a local economy. we'll talk exclusively to jpmorg jpmorgan's corporate bank. >>> and apple sold nearly 34 million iphones last quarter, a record roughly in line with analyst expectations. why have shares fallen after hours? we're going to review the tech giant's performance coming up. "worldwide exchange" continues. ♪ [ male announcer ] when we built the cadillac ats from the ground up to be the world's best sport sedan... ♪ ...people noticed. ♪ the cadillac ats -- 2013 north american car of the year. lease this cadillac ats for around $299 per month with premium care maintenance included. at bny mellon, our business is investments. managing them, moving them, making them work. we oversee 20% of the world's financial assets. and that gives us scale and insight no one else has. investment management combined with investment servicing. bringing the power of investments to people's lives. invested in the world. bny mellon. sometimes they just drop in. always obvious. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enabl
that before. it can only be positive. when you have an economy with ample surplus capacity, forces that stimulating growth are increasingly different and active. rising prices of stocks. rising price values of homes. the consumer is reliquifying and experience important balance sheet appreciation and the recent spate of negative fears associated with the political brinksmanship over default and the budget -- and the government shutdown. that's behind us. that scared people. we never had a real threat of default before. so now people are free to look at the future. which is really exciting and bright. >> ken, you have had a great record. you have ridden this bull for all these years. you've ridden this bull this bull cycle. you just nailed it. let me just ask you, if i'm right, i may or may not be right, but if i'm right the fed is going to continue to inflate the money supply, whether that works or not remains to be seen. i think that's their policy. and profits are still rising, albeit slowly, ken. how long does this bull market cycle have left? i get this question all the time. d
cut? is this enough to boost the economy? >> look, there's a demand side way of looking at it and a supply side way. the demand side way is having to spend so much on gasoline crowds out other expenditures. i like the supply side way. when gas is cheap, you can buy more gas. you can drive a car that will fit your whole family. you can live in a home that's further away from your work. you can go to home depot and buy more stuff. gas is the stuff of growth. for the last ten years, we've been spending 3% of gdp on gas. that's too much. during the reagan years and the carter years, we were spending 1% of gdp on gas. that's what makes growth possible. we could get back there again. we just need a republican congress and a republican president to take the chains off fracking. we could have 50 cent gasoline. >> i'm -- i'd love to take the chains off fracking, but we had a much stronger dollar. during the reagan years, we had a much stronger dollar. if memory serves me, the price of crude oil at that point, global price went from about $40 a barrel all the way down to about $12
, right? but when we actually get that weak number, people say holy cow, the economy is weak. and they get really scared. and you know what they do when they're scared, they sell. if you're all nervous about friday, a strong or weak number, you're going to get sell, sell, sell. the market could take a hit, so i need you to plan accordingly. how about individual companies? monday is independent all day and after the close, we're going to hear from three cramer gaves. all these stocks will get hit no matter what, that's the psychological barrier of what -- i would be a buyer of any of them going in. i don't expect any weakness. there's a lot of chatter about competitive products as to -- i think you stay on the sidelines. no need to get aggressive yet. aol and cbs. i believe that both are going to put up good numbers. aol's numbers were initially greeted with cat calls, but now, people are buying. the drugstore business has been on fire. unfortunately, cbs has been on fire too. the stock, i don't expect it to pop. whole foods reports on wednesday, i am worried about this one. not because i'm
that number people say holy cow this economy is so weak. they'll get really scared and you know what they do, sell, sell, sell. it will be boring and there will be more sellers. no, my solution is if you're at all nervous about friday, under both scenarios, you're going to get -- >> sell sell sell. >> unless the number comes not too strong, not too weak the number could take a hit. i need you to plan accordingly. after the close we'll hear from three cramer favs. you've heard all of these companies on our show. all three raise production numbers but oil plummeted here. if crue goes $5 lower -- i wouldn't be a buyer of any of them going in. tuesday we got names like tesla. i think tesla is a cold stock. and if he announces a deal in europe or china, this one sees a flash. i don't expect any weakness. there's a lot of chatter about competitive products about what they have in the pipe. i even suggested it. i think you stay on the sides. not need to get aggressive yet. we also hear from aol. aol when things settle down, people start buying. why both? i think 2014 is going to be a terrific year
orleans area for an event on the economy. the president will discuss the importance of taking measures to grow the economy and create jobs by increasing our exports. more details on the president's travel will be released as they become available. that is my very brief topper. i go to you. >> is that the week? >> no we'll have the full week ahead at the end of your briefing, chuck. >> thanks, jay. i know the president has been briefed on the shooting at lax. can you tell us any more about who he was briefed by at the white house, anyone he may have talked to? does he have any sense of what actually has happened in this incident? >> the president has been briefed on the incident at los angeles international airport by alyssa mastromonaco his deputy chief of staff and he will be regularly updated on unfolding events there. at this point the lead is lapd but we're obviously at the federal level in touch with law enforcement officials on the ground and will, the president will be updated as the afternoon progresses. >> at this point, anything you can say about what he's been told, what the
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